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Yamaha in trouble?


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OldSchoolEuph
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:45 am    Post subject: Yamaha in trouble? Reply with quote

On September 17th, 2021, Yamaha stock hit $67/share. This was a significant bump from the mid 50s it had been in for most of the year. Following this, it fell to the low 40s, upper 30s until a precipitous drop at the start of August 2023 when it fell to $30 and has steadily dropped since. It is now poised to break through $20/share in it's ongoing decline.

For a manufacturer to lose 2/3 of market cap in the span 2.5 years is a very alarming sign. Revenue has been up each of the last 3 quarters, yet the decline in share price has accelerated.

This is the world's largest musical instrument maker. Something has to be driving this - and it doesn't bode well for the craft in general.
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Tony Scodwell
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 9:26 am    Post subject: Band instruments Reply with quote

I understand Yamaha is having difficulty replacing workers stemming from the Covid period. Some key people either died or chose not to return and it isn't trivial re-training new skilled workers. Delivery on horns is very slow and dealers are having to wait to get key horns they need for this school year. Also similar problems with Bach when they paid decent wages only to see many of their skilled craftsmen go down the road to build Winnebago motor homes for twice the dough. I hear many times that the students can't play and the pros don't have any gigs which doesn't bode well for the industry in general.

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Man Of Constant Sorrow
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yamaha is a diversifed company.
I believe the company will emerge intact. Likely, some "adjustments" will ensue.
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Irving
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The yen is weak compared to the dollar, so that will influence the stock price as well.
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Liberty Lips
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Man Of Constant Sorrow wrote:
Yamaha is a diversifed company.
I believe the company will emerge intact. Likely, some "adjustments" will ensue.
But that's the problem. If the brass instrument division continues to do poorly, the motorcycle boat-engine generator audio-video-electronics jetski motorboat corporation might just "diversify" musical instruments away.
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OldSchoolEuph
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Man Of Constant Sorrow wrote:
Yamaha is a diversifed company.
I believe the company will emerge intact. Likely, some "adjustments" will ensue.


Yamaha Musical Instruments spun-off the small engine division years ago. They are separate companies.
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2017 Austin Winds Stage 466
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Rhondo
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Graphs here including non-musical instruments categories indicate it may not be that dire.
Economies go through cycles.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/612389/operating-income-of-yamaha-corporations-music-instruments-worldwide/
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Rhondo
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OldSchoolEuph wrote:
Man Of Constant Sorrow wrote:
Yamaha is a diversifed company.
I believe the company will emerge intact. Likely, some "adjustments" will ensue.


Yamaha Musical Instruments spun-off the small engine division years ago. They are separate companies.


You didn’t specify that in your opening post. You simply referred to ‘Yamaha stock’. Does ‘Yamaha stock’ include the musical instruments manufacturer or not?
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OldSchoolEuph
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rhondo wrote:
OldSchoolEuph wrote:
Man Of Constant Sorrow wrote:
Yamaha is a diversifed company.
I believe the company will emerge intact. Likely, some "adjustments" will ensue.


Yamaha Musical Instruments spun-off the small engine division years ago. They are separate companies.


You didn’t specify that in your opening post. You simply referred to ‘Yamaha stock’. Does ‘Yamaha stock’ include the musical instruments manufacturer or not?


I am talking about Yamaha Corporation, a musical instrument maker founded in 1887 by Torakusu Yamaha, who spent 3 years getting his first pedal-powered reed organ for a private school to play in tune - thus the company logo of three tuning forks. Stock ticker YAMCY

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. was spun off in 1955 from Nippon Gakki Co. (the former name of Yamaha Corp.) and trades under the symbol YAMHF.

I figured this was a trumpet forum, not a motorsports one.
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2017 Austin Winds Stage 466
1962 Mt. Vernon Bach 43
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Liberty Lips
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OldSchoolEuph wrote:
I figured this was a trumpet forum, not a motorsports one.

There's no reason to get snippy now.
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Rhondo
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OldSchoolEuph wrote:
Rhondo wrote:
OldSchoolEuph wrote:
Man Of Constant Sorrow wrote:
Yamaha is a diversifed company.
I believe the company will emerge intact. Likely, some "adjustments" will ensue.


Yamaha Musical Instruments spun-off the small engine division years ago. They are separate companies.


You didn’t specify that in your opening post. You simply referred to ‘Yamaha stock’. Does ‘Yamaha stock’ include the musical instruments manufacturer or not?


I am talking about Yamaha Corporation, a musical instrument maker founded in 1887 by Torakusu Yamaha, who spent 3 years getting his first pedal-powered reed organ for a private school to play in tune - thus the company logo of three tuning forks. Stock ticker YAMCY

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. was spun off in 1955 from Nippon Gakki Co. (the former name of Yamaha Corp.) and trades under the symbol YAMHF.

I figured this was a trumpet forum, not a motorsports one.


Got it, but many of us didn’t know that, and I’m not sure how clear it is if one googles ‘Yamaha corporation’.

Stats also show Yamaha musical instruments increased income in 2023 from 2022, unless I’m misunderstanding.
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OldSchoolEuph
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rhondo wrote:
Stats also show Yamaha musical instruments increased income in 2023 from 2022, unless I’m misunderstanding.


Yes. Which is one of the things that begs the question what is driving this
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2017 Austin Winds Stage 466
1962 Mt. Vernon Bach 43
1954 Holton 49 Stratodyne
1927 Conn 22B
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Croquethed
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to this analysis last October from Seeking Alpha, the winds/strings/percussion share of their manufacture is just 15%. They've very diversified, but facing headwinds.

"Despite a tailwind from a depreciating Japanese yen, operating profits fell 39% YoY driven by a deterioration in the sales mix combined with price cuts, and falling piano sales in China. The key weakness was in digital pianos on a worldwide basis with a fall in entry-level products. Wind, string, and percussion instruments were said to be robust but also fell YoY due to high hurdles YoY from post-pandemic demand."

seekingalpha.com/article/4639815-yamaha-corp-downside-risk-from-limited-demand-recovery
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yourbrass
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One person I talked to who's in the brass repair/machining business said that Yamaha had a branch in his country which readily supplied parts and instruments, and for a lot less than Bach. That has a lot to do with the strong dollar, as others have noted, but he also said it takes a lot longer to get a response from Bach.
I hope both Yamaha and Bach survive, there's no sure thing anymore in this race to the bottom.
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Man Of Constant Sorrow
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="Croquethed"] ...The key weakness was in digital pianos on a worldwide basis with a fall in entry-level products.

I would opine this is not worrisome.

(Disclaimer: I am a keyboard player.)

Casio, Behringer, and Roland dominate entry-level market ... while, Roland and Kurzweil compete roughly head-to-head up-market with Yamaha.

The synth and Mini-Moog segments do not compete directly with Yamaha, but offer products that appeal to players wanting to expand their sonic arsenal.
Hammond recently introduced the "M-Solo" portable organ (digital modeling of the iconic B3 with digital Leslie simulation) at a mind-bending $1300.

Yamaha stage keyboards have new competion from Nord, a Swedish company.

* As a side-note, Hammond now offers the Portable B3 mk2, a "factory chopped" version of the venerable B3.
My old B3 weighed 350 lbs (sans Leslie tone cabinet). The Portable mk2 weighs 276 lbs. Whew! What a relief!

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Last edited by Man Of Constant Sorrow on Tue Mar 05, 2024 4:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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mafields627
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Man Of Constant Sorrow wrote:


Yamaha stage keyboards have new competion from Nord, a Swedish company.


The red Nord is taking over the church market. "Where Nord is, there the Lord is" .... or so they say.
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Man Of Constant Sorrow
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2024 7:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mafields627 wrote:
Man Of Constant Sorrow wrote:


Yamaha stage keyboards have new competion from Nord, a Swedish company.


"Where Nord is, there the Lord is" ..


Cute
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andybharms
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yamaha doesn’t operate like a lot of American companies. They believe that technological and logistical breakthroughs making trumpets will help them make better motorcycles, and vice versa. As a corporation, they are pretty committed to this idea. I obviously don’t know their thinking first hand but I think they’re pretty committed to continuing to make good instruments for people at every level.

As far as the industry, yes, even in my short time on this earth I have seen some shifting. Mostly post pandemic… there is less interest in learning classical/orchestral trumpet, and less willingness among the people studying it to do those late nights and early mornings. There is actually a shortfall of good players and a surplus of good paying work in New England. Our personnel managers have had to work double time to find good people.
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puzzleheadedcow
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2024 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hmmm who should I trust.

OSE or Yamaha?


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OldSchoolEuph
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 05, 2024 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

puzzleheadedcow wrote:
hmmm who should I trust.

OSE or Yamaha?


So you don't believe me when I report that YAMCY has dropped to almost $20? I'll happily sell you shares at $67 each tomorrow.
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Ron Berndt
www.trumpet-history.com

2017 Austin Winds Stage 466
1962 Mt. Vernon Bach 43
1954 Holton 49 Stratodyne
1927 Conn 22B
1957 Holton 27 cornet
1985 Yamaha YEP-621
1975 Yamaha YEP-321 Custom
1965 Besson Baritone
1975 Olds Recording R-20
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