View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
JimmyDamsgaard New Member
Joined: 23 Mar 2023 Posts: 6 Location: Denmark
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:23 am Post subject: How many trumpets are produced? |
|
|
Does anyone know how many trumpets are produced each year? |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Quadstriker Veteran Member
Joined: 14 Dec 2021 Posts: 108
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
At least 10 |
|
Back to top |
|
|
kehaulani Heavyweight Member
Joined: 23 Mar 2003 Posts: 9033 Location: Hawai`i - Texas
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:45 am Post subject: |
|
|
Quadstriker wrote: | At least 10 |
_________________ "If you don't live it, it won't come out of your horn." Bird
Yamaha 8310Z Bobby Shew trumpet
Benge 3X Trumpet
Benge 3X Cornet
Adams F-1 Flghn |
|
Back to top |
|
|
JimmyDamsgaard New Member
Joined: 23 Mar 2023 Posts: 6 Location: Denmark
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
In other words: You no idea. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Subtropical and Subpar Heavyweight Member
Joined: 22 May 2020 Posts: 627 Location: Here and there
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
I think it reasonable to assume somewhere in the five-figure range. The major brands make a few to several thousand every year, plus all the boutiques that make a few to a hundred horns per year, plus who knows how many horns come out of China and India. It's a broad range, but I think it fits. Under 10,000 seems too low; over 100,000 and I'm losing my ability to confidently guesstimate-cum-bullsh*t an answer. Not being an actual management consultant, I tend to have humility when talking out my backside _________________ 1932 King Silvertone cornet
1936 King Liberty No. 2 trumpet
1958 Reynolds Contempora 44-M "Renascence" C
1962 Reynolds Argenta LB trumpet
1965 Conn 38A
1995 Bach LR18072
2003 Kanstul 991
2011 Schilke P5-4 B/G
2021 Manchester Brass flugel |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Bethmike Veteran Member
Joined: 21 Jan 2020 Posts: 194 Location: NW of ORD
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:50 am Post subject: |
|
|
So for the sake of a conversation, if we assume the amount actually is 10,000 new trumpets manufactured per year, does this mean:
A. There is a net increase of 10,000 new trumpet players each year?
B. There are 10,000 trumpets worn out and discarded each year?
C. There are 10,000 additional trumpets relegated to the closet each year?
D. Trumpet collectors have added 10,000 horns to collections?
What say you?
Mike _________________ Bach190ML43
Kanstul 1001
Bach NY7
Yamaha 631 Flugel |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Subtropical and Subpar Heavyweight Member
Joined: 22 May 2020 Posts: 627 Location: Here and there
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:05 am Post subject: |
|
|
Bethmike wrote: | So for the sake of a conversation, if we assume the amount actually is 10,000 new trumpets manufactured per year, does this mean:
A. There is a net increase of 10,000 new trumpet players each year?
B. There are 10,000 trumpets worn out and discarded each year?
C. There are 10,000 additional trumpets relegated to the closet each year?
D. Trumpet collectors have added 10,000 horns to collections?
What say you?
Mike |
I don't think A is unreasonable. More than eight billion people live on our little planet now, and for all of the many real and existential threats to our planet, it's pretty undeniably true that the last few decades have seen hundreds and hundreds of millions of people rise from poverty into the working and middle classes, particularly across Asia and the subcontinent. 10,000 trumpets per year works out to roughly one new trumpet per 0.000125% of the world's population. And don't forget that a lot of instruments are bought by schools or school systems.
Incidentally, presuming the serial numbers went up sequentially, Bach alone often made >10,000 trumpets per year in the 90s and 00s. https://bachloyalist.com/serial-numbers-trumpet/. Even if they make far less today, I have to imagine that just Bach, Yamaha, Carolbrass, and Jupiter alone make over 10,000 trumpets per year. _________________ 1932 King Silvertone cornet
1936 King Liberty No. 2 trumpet
1958 Reynolds Contempora 44-M "Renascence" C
1962 Reynolds Argenta LB trumpet
1965 Conn 38A
1995 Bach LR18072
2003 Kanstul 991
2011 Schilke P5-4 B/G
2021 Manchester Brass flugel |
|
Back to top |
|
|
LittleRusty Heavyweight Member
Joined: 11 Aug 2004 Posts: 12664 Location: Gardena, Ca
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:22 am Post subject: |
|
|
Bethmike wrote: | So for the sake of a conversation, if we assume the amount actually is 10,000 new trumpets manufactured per year, does this mean:
A. There is a net increase of 10,000 new trumpet players each year?
B. There are 10,000 trumpets worn out and discarded each year?
C. There are 10,000 additional trumpets relegated to the closet each year?
D. Trumpet collectors have added 10,000 horns to collections?
What say you?
Mike |
I don’t think any of the above are accurate.
A + B + C + D = 40,000. So either one of the statements is true and all the rest false or they all are false and all the numbers are smaller.
IMO the purchase of a trumpet does not equate to creating a trumpet player.
The total number of trumpets is unconstrained. Adding a new doesn’t mean discarding an existing. I still have most of the trumpets I ever purchased.
Some are relegated, some of mine are, but I still play the C and Pic in addition to my Bb.
Trumpet collectors are unlikely to collect the entry level and below instruments. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
huntman10 Heavyweight Member
Joined: 30 Aug 2017 Posts: 696 Location: Texas South Plains
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
I will assume that most of the band instruments in the world go to the USA, because of our public education system, although I am also aware that many nations are more supportive of various arts. I could be wrong, and invite correction.
U S census reported 77 million public school students pre-COVID. Assume 12 grades plus kindergarten, so if we assume equal distribution evenly among the grades (I know, there is a varying degree of dropouts, etc.) about 6 million in each grade. So estimate about 1.6 million kids each year will be eligible for their school music program. I live In a real small town, which has a higher recruitment for extra curricular activities (but a really low income area as well) so I will guess that 10% of the kids generally will take instrumental music, and maybe 15% of those will play trumpet. So maybe 90,000 trumpet recruits.
Based on my own limited public school teaching, and my extensive experience buying and fixing horns for students, I will assume that the average trumpet these days will last about 3 years (averaging good stuff with "they don't make em like....", and a few that get stuffed into closets, as well as intentional demolition)whether bought new or used or rented, with average maintenance. So assume 33% to make up "the fleet" of student horns.
So my guess is about 33,000 US beginner horns. Maybe that many more for the rest of the world. I will stick my neck out here and guess that maybe 15% of the trumpet startup populations stick it out and upgrade. So maybe 13,500 upgrade, 50% new, 6,750 upgrade horns? Then why does the Bach serial number list go up about 25,000 a year? I guess worldwide?? Or guys like me with about 90 horns piled up.
This must be one of those "unknowables" that only the illuminati know.
Speaking of which, when will Getzen help us. I really like getting his outlook! Love his horns, too. _________________ huntman10
Collector/Player of Fine (and not so fine) Brass Instruments including
Various Strads, Yammies, Al Hirt Courtois, Schilkes,
Selmer 25, Getzen Eternas, Kanstuls (920 Pic, CG)
Martin Custom Large Bore, Lots Olds!, Conns, etc. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Bethmike Veteran Member
Joined: 21 Jan 2020 Posts: 194 Location: NW of ORD
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:27 am Post subject: |
|
|
Quote: | A + B + C + D = 40,000. So either one of the statements is true and all the rest false or they all are false and all the numbers are smaller. |
I neglected to put an "or" after each option. Sorry - my mistake. _________________ Bach190ML43
Kanstul 1001
Bach NY7
Yamaha 631 Flugel |
|
Back to top |
|
|
kehaulani Heavyweight Member
Joined: 23 Mar 2003 Posts: 9033 Location: Hawai`i - Texas
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
I believe the true answer lies in processing the chance procedures from the Tao Te Ching. _________________ "If you don't live it, it won't come out of your horn." Bird
Yamaha 8310Z Bobby Shew trumpet
Benge 3X Trumpet
Benge 3X Cornet
Adams F-1 Flghn |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Christian K. Peters Heavyweight Member
Joined: 12 Nov 2001 Posts: 1532 Location: Eugene, Oregon
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 12:06 pm Post subject: How many trpt are produced |
|
|
Hello all,
I think you can go to serial number lists, and get a ball park per brand. Boutique builders are going to have much lower numbers. You might get production numbers by contacting the smaller companies directly...That is if you really need to know. If you are doing a dissertation, you might get a helpful response, depending... _________________ Christian K. Peters
Schilke Loyalist since 1976 |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Subtropical and Subpar Heavyweight Member
Joined: 22 May 2020 Posts: 627 Location: Here and there
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 12:09 pm Post subject: Re: How many trpt are produced |
|
|
Christian K. Peters wrote: | Hello all,
I think you can go to serial number lists, and get a ball park per brand. Boutique builders are going to have much lower numbers. You might get production numbers by contacting the smaller companies directly...That is if you really need to know. If you are doing a dissertation, you might get a helpful response, depending... |
I started to do that with Bach, but then couldn't readily find serial number listings for Yamaha or Carolbrass and gave up _________________ 1932 King Silvertone cornet
1936 King Liberty No. 2 trumpet
1958 Reynolds Contempora 44-M "Renascence" C
1962 Reynolds Argenta LB trumpet
1965 Conn 38A
1995 Bach LR18072
2003 Kanstul 991
2011 Schilke P5-4 B/G
2021 Manchester Brass flugel |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Christian K. Peters Heavyweight Member
Joined: 12 Nov 2001 Posts: 1532 Location: Eugene, Oregon
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:14 pm Post subject: Serial numbers |
|
|
Hello,
Serial number lists are not usually published per year. _________________ Christian K. Peters
Schilke Loyalist since 1976 |
|
Back to top |
|
|
LittleRusty Heavyweight Member
Joined: 11 Aug 2004 Posts: 12664 Location: Gardena, Ca
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bethmike wrote: | Quote: | A + B + C + D = 40,000. So either one of the statements is true and all the rest false or they all are false and all the numbers are smaller. |
I neglected to put an "or" after each option. Sorry - my mistake. |
I wondered but treating it as intended made it easier to explain my thoughts. I hope I didn’t offend you. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Bethmike Veteran Member
Joined: 21 Jan 2020 Posts: 194 Location: NW of ORD
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 4:04 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Quote: | I hope I didn’t offend you. |
Not at all. Interesting thread. Whether it's 10,000 or 40,000, it sounds like a lot of trumpets at first, but as pointed out, compared the population of the earth, it's pretty small. _________________ Bach190ML43
Kanstul 1001
Bach NY7
Yamaha 631 Flugel |
|
Back to top |
|
|
jeirvine Veteran Member
Joined: 29 Apr 2022 Posts: 337 Location: Baltimore, MD USA
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 6:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Interesting question.
For fun, I estimate the number of trumpets, cornets, and flugelhorns made by Olds at the LA shop at about 48,000:
1929-1946: serial numbers 1-15,000.
1946-mid 1954: SN 15,000 - 8,700: (at 15,000 serial numbers were merged with other brasses): I'm wildly guessing trumpets/cornets/flugelhorns at about a third of all brasses would mean an additional 33,000.
I wonder how many of them are still around and playable? _________________ 1932 King Silvertone Artist Bore
1945 Buescher 400
1946 Olds Super
1947 Olds Super Cornet
1948 Couesnon flugelhorn
1951 Olds Special
1956 Martin Committee
1964 Olds Recording
1968 Bach 329 C
1996 Bach 37 |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Man Of Constant Sorrow Veteran Member
Joined: 25 Jun 2023 Posts: 473
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Too many.
Much junk; especially Chinese . _________________ Sub-Optimal Hillbilly Jazz |
|
Back to top |
|
|
Robert P Heavyweight Member
Joined: 28 Feb 2013 Posts: 2596
|
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
A lot but that's just an estimate. _________________ Getzen Eterna Severinsen
King Silver Flair
Besson 1000
Bundy
Chinese C
Getzen Eterna Bb/A piccolo
Chinese Rotary Bb/A piccolo
Chinese Flugel |
|
Back to top |
|
|
|